Tampa Bay deal radar

Industrial & flex · retail · land — Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Polk

Saturday, July 25, 2026 · 7:00 AM ET

Signals scanned

1,847

14 cleared threshold

Calls queued

9

~71 min of dials

New pipeline

$412K

Weighted GCI

Clock running

3

Close in 14 days

Act today

4412 N 40th St — 88,400 SF warehouse

East Tampa · Meridian Bay Holdings LLC (Chicago) · held 9.3 yrs · basis $4.1M

94

CMBS loan matures 03/2027 at 4.05%. Refi pencils near 6.9% — DSCR falls to 1.04 at today's rents. Out-of-state owner, no broker of record, no listing history.

Say: "Have you run the refi math at 6.9%? I can show you what a sale clears net of defeasance." Lead comp: 6120 Adamo, $147/SF, closed in 41 days.

Source: Hillsborough Clerk mortgage records + CMBS servicer watchlist

Gateway Commerce Center — 214,000 SF spec

Plant City · delivered 11/2025 · 0% leased · 261 days vacant

87

Lease-up is 143 days past the Plant City median for 200K+ SF spec. Incumbent listing hits its 12-month mark on 08/14. Lender extension covenant requires 40% leased by Q4.

Say: Takeover or co-listing pitch before 08/14. Walk in with the three 100K–250K SF requirements in your book that toured Lakeland and passed on rent.

Source: Availability tracking + certificate of occupancy date

Bruce B Downs & County Line — 11.4 acres

Wesley Chapel · two parcels, separate owners, both held 20+ yrs, ag exempt

81

Adjacent 6-acre parcel rezoned C-2 on 07/22 (Pasco BOCC consent agenda). Utility extension funded in the FY27 CIP. Trade-area retail vacancy is 2.9% vs. 3.7% metro-wide.

Say: Assemblage control. Both owners are individuals over 70 with homestead elsewhere — lead with estate planning, not price.

Source: Pasco BOCC agenda + property appraiser exemption flags

Your listing: 2201 Causeway Blvd — 36,000 SF flex

On market 118 days · submarket median 74 days

Fix

Priced at $12.25 NNN. Two comparable flex spaces within 1.5 miles cut asking to $10.75 and $11.00 in the last 18 days. Tours fell from 6 to 1 over 30 days — you are now the highest-priced option in the set.

Say: Price-reduction conversation with the owner this week, or restructure to a TI-heavy deal at face rent.

Source: Listing price-change monitoring

Overnight triggers

TriggerDetailYour move
Deed transfer3 industrial parcels to new LLCs, Hillsborough, $18.4M combinedNew comps + owner intro
Notice of commencement$2.1M interior buildout, 8800 Grand Blvd, tenant undisclosedOccupier expanding — call GC
Sublease posted62,000 SF Brandon, 41 months left, $2.15 under marketMatch to 2 requirements
Lis pendensRetail strip, 14,200 SF, Pinellas Park, filed 07/23Watchlist — 90-day follow
Rezoning agenda4 hearings in your farm area, 08/06 and 08/19Call applicants pre-hearing
Corporate filing2 out-of-state 3PLs registered FL entities with Tampa addressesCold outreach, space need

Deed transfer

3 industrial parcels to new LLCs, Hillsborough, $18.4M combined

New comps + owner intro

Notice of commencement

$2.1M interior buildout, 8800 Grand Blvd, tenant undisclosed

Occupier expanding — call GC

Sublease posted

62,000 SF Brandon, 41 months left, $2.15 under market

Match to 2 requirements

Lis pendens

Retail strip, 14,200 SF, Pinellas Park, filed 07/23

Watchlist — 90-day follow

Rezoning agenda

4 hearings in your farm area, 08/06 and 08/19

Call applicants pre-hearing

Corporate filing

2 out-of-state 3PLs registered FL entities with Tampa addresses

Cold outreach, space need

Market pulse

Industrial vacancy8.7%+93 bps YoY
Industrial asking rent$9.63 NNNFlat QoQ, near record
Industrial sales volume$210M~2× prior quarter
Industrial cap rate6.33%Market average
Retail vacancy3.7%Availability 3.4%
Retail asking rent$30.30 FS+5.6% YoY, record
Retail cap rate6.3%Trailing 12 months
The read: Industrial vacancy is elevated from the 2024–25 spec wave, but starts have dried up and vacancy is expected to peak mid-2026 then tighten into 2027. That asymmetry is the trade — transact now on soft-market terms into a tightening supply curve. Retail is the mirror image: 3.4% availability and record rents mean there is no leasing play, only sourcing sellers and entitling land.

Your funnel · trailing 30 days

Dial → conversation

18%

Target 15%

Conversation → meeting

11%

Target 20% — weak link

Tour → LOI

31%

Target 25%

Listings won / pitched

2/7

Avg 6.1 mo to close