Tampa Bay deal radar

Fourth day of decay — 90 on Monday, 86 yesterday, 84 today, still no contact made. The recorded mortgage maturing 03/2027 at 4.05% remains the one fact on this card read directly from the Hillsborough Clerk file, and it is still the strongest motivation signal in the book: a sub-4.5% loan inside 18 months of maturity. The 6.9% refi rate and the 1.04 DSCR are my estimates and have not been re-verified since Monday. No broker of record and no listing history in the public file. This is the last day it sits at the top of the board. Dial it today or I move it to the trigger feed tomorrow.

Say: "Have you run the refi math at today's rate? I can show you what a sale clears net of defeasance." Lead comp: Lakeland Commerce Center, $121/SF, closed 07/20.

Source: Hillsborough Clerk mortgage records — carryover, not re-verified today

Lakeland's second reading and vote on the 12-month data center moratorium is set for Monday 08/03, four days out. If it passes as drafted, the city cannot rezone or issue building permits for a data center or any customer over 50 MW monthly peak, and city water and electric will not serve one — which the city attorney said on 07/20 could reach utility customers beyond city limits. Lohmiller told the commission on 07/06 the project is a cloud data storage edge facility, about 500,000 SF fully built out and roughly 100 MW. Lakeland Electric's Scott Bishop said 100 MW is "an extreme case" the current grid could not handle, and noted a three-to-five-year backlog on gas turbines, so self-generation is not a near-term workaround either. That is a live, publicly stated half-million-SF requirement whose preferred site is about to be frozen for a year. No broker was named in any of the public coverage, and Ryan is a national developer that may already have representation — that is my read, not a fact. One caveat I did read: the city attorney said substantive changes to the ordinance wording would force a new first reading, so 08/03 could slip.

Say: "Your Lakeland site goes on ice Monday if the moratorium passes. I cover unincorporated Polk and east Hillsborough daily — let me put three sites in front of you that sit outside Lakeland Electric's territory before you spend another cycle on Wilkinson Road." Second call, same day: pull the parcel owners around Old Tampa Hwy and Wilkinson Rd off the Polk rolls and call them — the bid they were counting on disappears Monday. Do not assert to them who else has approached the land; I have not read an owner name on that site from a record.

Source: LkldNow 07/07/2026 and 07/22/2026 on the moratorium hearings; Lakeland City Clerk calendar confirms an 08/03/2026 commission meeting

Carried and decayed from 79. The incumbent listing hits its 12-month mark on 08/14, fifteen days out, and that date is still the only thing on this item I would act on. The lender extension covenant requiring 40% leased by Q4 came from an earlier run and has never been verified against a source document — treat it as unconfirmed.

Say: Takeover or co-listing pitch, calendared for the week of 08/10 so it lands before 08/14. Walk in with the three 100K–250K SF requirements in your book that toured Lakeland and passed on rent.

Source: Availability tracking + certificate of occupancy date — carryover

Priced at $12.25 NNN and now 49 days past the submarket median. Two comparable flex spaces within 1.5 miles cut asking to $10.75 and $11.00 in the last month, so you are still the highest-priced option in the set. EastGroup's permitted 113,000 SF first building at Bell Creek Logistics Center in Riverview, with 225,531 SF of Phase 1 spec delivering Q1 2027, lands in your competitive set.

Say: Price-reduction conversation with the owner this week, or restructure to a TI-heavy deal at face rent. Use the Bell Creek delivery date as the reason to transact now rather than into new spec.

Source: Listing price-change monitoring + Hillsborough permit filing reported 07/07